073
FXUS65 KTFX 291636
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1036 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
- CONSISTENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST,
CENTRAL, AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, DECREASING TONIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 530 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID-
LEVELS WILL COMBINE WITH FORCING FROM THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION TO RESULT IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS
STRATIFORM RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK GREATEST NEAR
GLACIER NP, WHERE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY MID- LEVEL WILL BE
MOST ORTHOGONAL TO TERRAIN. THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN AND NEAR
GLACIER NP SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RISK FOR ROCKFALL AND CREEK AND
STREAM RISES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CWA TOMORROW, ENDING THE
PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK, AS
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE PERSISTS. DESPITE THIS, SHEAR
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND, PEAKING
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S WITH THE
BUILDING OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. - AM AND DZOMBA
AVIATION
29/18Z TAF PERIOD
MAINLY STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
RESERVED FOR NORTHERN AREAS, WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY GRADUALLY IMPROVES
BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. -AM
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CWA TODAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT.
OVERALL, NO FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SO FAR FOR THIS
EVENT, BUT SOME MINOR ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN AREAS THAT
ARE STARTING TO APPROACH 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 58 50 74 51 / 100 90 20 20
CTB 60 49 71 48 / 90 90 20 10
HLN 58 49 72 52 / 100 80 50 60
BZN 54 44 71 46 / 100 70 30 50
WYS 47 32 63 33 / 100 50 10 0
DLN 55 40 68 45 / 100 30 50 60
HVR 63 50 76 51 / 80 70 40 10
LWT 54 45 70 46 / 100 80 40 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR ELKHORN AND
BOULDER MOUNTAINS-GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BEAVERHEAD
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NORTHWEST
BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
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