714
FXUS65 KTFX 292040
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING BUT IMPACTS FROM RECENT LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY LINGER IN THE GLACIER NATIONAL PARK
AREA.
- DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MT CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE MOISTURE AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY LIGHT,
A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
GLACIER NP.
A DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPS TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THOUGH
SOME TROUGHING IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW LINGERS ACROSS THE NW US AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY COULD FACILITATE A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THOSE DAYS WITH THE FRIDAY WAVE POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ENOUGH SHEAR AND CAPE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. LONGER RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES GENERALLY
SUPPORT RIDGING THIS WEEKEND FOR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING. HOENISCH
AVIATION
29/18Z TAF PERIOD
MAINLY STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
RESERVED FOR NORTHERN AREAS, WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY GRADUALLY IMPROVES
BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN OBSCURED
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. -AM
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MANY GLACIER AREA WHERE
RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS LED TO SEVERAL TRAIL CLOSURES AND RISES
ON SWIFTCURRENT CREEK ARE IMPACTING ROAD ACCESS WITH FORECASTS
INDICATING ADDITIONAL RISES ON THE CREEK THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF GLACIER PARK AND
ADJACENT AREAS WHERE 2-5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER
THE LAST 48HRS AND UP TO 0.50" OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST CREEKS
ORIGINATING FROM THE GLACIER NP AND THE NORTHERN ROCKY MTN FRONT
HAVE SHOWN MODERATE RISES FROM THE RUNOFF AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 48 73 50 74 / 90 20 10 30
CTB 48 70 48 71 / 90 30 0 0
HLN 48 72 51 72 / 80 40 50 80
BZN 43 70 44 72 / 70 30 40 60
WYS 33 61 33 67 / 70 30 20 20
DLN 40 67 43 71 / 50 50 70 50
HVR 48 75 50 78 / 70 40 10 10
LWT 44 70 45 72 / 90 30 10 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION.
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