597
FXUS65 KTFX 300959
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
359 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL RAINFALL IS NOW OVER WITH, BUT IT WILL TAKE ABOUT 6
TO 12 HOURS FOR THE WATER TO RECEDE IN FLOODED AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE 4TH OF JULY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS CAUSED ALL THE RAIN/SNOW OVER THE CWA
THE PAST 3 DAYS IS NOW EXITING THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT, WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINING EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR WED THRU FRI...EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS POINT I AM NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH THE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO GO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW MOST DAYS AS WELL. IT COULD BE A
BIT BREEZY ON SATURDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT, OTHERWISE GENERALLY
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THUNDERSTORMS -> THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND THE RECENT MOISTURE, AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
PERCENT AT THIS TIME FOR MOST DAYS.
WINDS -> A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS COULD DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. OVERALL WINDS WILL NOT BE TO
STRONG, GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE, BUT THIS COULD HAVE
SOME IMPACTS TO 4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS ACTIVITY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK -> SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. OVERALL WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA
AVIATION
30/12Z TAF PERIOD
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE CWA THIS MORNING, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MUCH SMALLER OF AN AREA THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS.
MOUNTAINS/PASSES COULD BE OBSCURED A BIT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON BY CLOUDS/PRECIP. BRUSDA
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN GLACIER
COUNTY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS
ENDED, WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER 6 TO 12 HOURS FOR THE WATER
TO RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR MOST AREAS, THUS THE FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 74 51 75 50 / 20 20 40 10
CTB 70 48 72 47 / 30 10 0 10
HLN 72 51 72 49 / 40 60 70 50
BZN 70 44 73 45 / 30 30 60 40
WYS 61 33 68 36 / 30 10 20 20
DLN 67 43 70 43 / 50 60 70 30
HVR 75 51 78 52 / 60 10 10 20
LWT 70 45 72 46 / 10 10 60 50
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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