203
FXUS65 KTFX 021750
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS OVER
THE AREA, EXPECT FOR SATURDAY, WHEN IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 408 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE CWA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MEANS ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
OVERALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WE WILL GENERALLY BE IN A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH JUST SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALSO RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
NOT GETTING TO EXCESSIVELY WARM.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL -> THERE IS ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. AT THIS TIME, I AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM, OR A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
OVERALL, AT THIS TIME, SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE ONE OF THE DRIER
DAYS ACROSS THE CWA, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ON THAT ONE
DAY.
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE CUT BANK
AREA, MAYBE GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS NOT OVERLY
HIGH, BUT COULD HAVE IMPACTS FOR ANY LIGHTING FIREWORKS. BRUSDA
AVIATION
02/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING OVER
THE BEARTOOTH, LITTLE BELT, AND SNOWY MTNS AFTER 20Z UNTIL 02Z WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPORARY MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FROM PRECIPITATION.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER WESTERN MT THIS EVENING. AKINS
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR RECREATION AREAS UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE FOR THE MANY GLACIER AREA IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, AS
FLOOD WATERS SLOWLY RECEDE. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 78 52 79 51 / 0 0 10 10
CTB 73 49 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 76 52 78 51 / 10 0 30 10
BZN 76 48 77 48 / 10 10 10 20
WYS 72 38 73 39 / 0 10 10 10
DLN 75 46 76 47 / 0 0 10 10
HVR 80 52 81 53 / 10 0 10 10
LWT 75 48 75 48 / 20 10 50 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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