227
FXUS65 KTFX 030936
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
336 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, SAVE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- BREEZY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND WILL BE
INDEPENDENCE DAY, WHEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH TRIES TO
NUDGE INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAIL TO INITIATE ON SATURDAY, IT
WILL BE A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP A BIT, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
OVER MONTANA REMAINS TIGHT AS THE BROAD TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
REMAINS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP,
COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE WORKING IN ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP, AND
GIVEN THE DRY AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER, I CAN’T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, UNTIL A
MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE, EVEN IF STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MID
LEVEL WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
SOUTH EXPANDS NORTHWARD, INTRUDING UPON THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA. THIS WILL CAUSE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO ACCELERATE, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT THERMAL MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE FROM TIME TO TIME,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER SUNDAY, THANKS TO SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER, THOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MIX THESE WIND GUSTS DOWN AND THEIR OUTFLOWS MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK: INCREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA AND OUR POSITION ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. WARMTH, ALONG WITH SOME
PERIODIC SURGES IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY
HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINED WITH SOME PERIODS OF
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES, A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL ANY DAY NEXT WEEK. LUDWIG
AVIATION
03/06Z TAF PERIOD
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
PASSING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 03/18 AND 04/00Z,
MOSTLY IMPACTING THE KLWT AREA. - RCG
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR RECREATION AREAS UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE FOR THE MANY GLACIER AREA IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK, AS
FLOOD WATERS SLOWLY RECEDE. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 81 52 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 75 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 80 52 85 55 / 20 20 0 0
BZN 79 49 84 53 / 20 20 0 0
WYS 74 40 80 43 / 20 20 0 0
DLN 77 48 83 51 / 20 20 0 0
HVR 82 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 77 49 83 52 / 20 20 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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