209
FXUS65 KTFX 031906
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
106 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MT.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH
A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM RISK MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION MAINTAINS A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY EXERTS A
GREATER INFLUENCE ACROSS AREA WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS LED TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING.
WARMING ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
OVERALL WARM BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGHING ACROSS BC MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING
A RETURN TO AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED BY
SOME SLIGHT COOLING ON MONDAY, MAINLY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MT, AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SLIDES SOUTH FROM AB. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING AROUND THE BUILDING SW US UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEPER SURGE OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE ON
MONDAY WHICH MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL MORE ORGANIZED/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HELENA TO LEWISTOWN. HIGHER CAPE
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXIST ACROSS FERGUS COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THERE
BEFORE DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MOVES EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MT THERE IS LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S LEADING TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS
WITH AREAS NEAR THE ID/WY BORDER LAST TO SEE THE DRYING THIS
EVENING. HOENISCH
AVIATION
03/18Z TAF PERIOD
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW MT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LUDWIG/THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 52 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 50 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 53 85 56 86 / 10 0 0 20
BZN 49 85 54 87 / 10 0 0 10
WYS 40 80 43 84 / 20 0 0 0
DLN 48 84 51 86 / 20 0 0 20
HVR 53 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 49 84 52 83 / 10 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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