287
FXUS65 KTFX 200626
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1226 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHERLY BREEZES, A BRIEF COOLDOWN,
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY.
- SUMMER HEAT BUILDS AGAIN AND DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORKWEEK
WITH SOME STORMS CONTAINING STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEPENDING THE QUALITY OF
RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH RUNNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND A CANADIAN
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND A BRIEF COOLDOWN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE
WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VARIABLE MIDDLE AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS.
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND BRINGS A RETURN TO HOT CONDITIONS
HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EMEBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ALONG THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE MAIN
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY, WILL BE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THIS RIDGE COULD BREAK DOWN
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD HELP MODERATE SOME OF THE CURRENTLY
FORECASTED HIGHS BUT IT WOULD COME AT THE PRICE OF WINDIER
CONDITIONS WHICH MAY STILL LEAD TO INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
-THOR
AVIATION
20/06Z TAF PERIOD
A SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL MAINTAIN
NORTHERLY BREEZES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE VARIABLE HIGH AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. OTHER THAT A FEW
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, VFR
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LINGERING
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT THAT MAY COMPROMISE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY AT
TIMES. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 83 60 85 60 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 79 57 81 57 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 86 61 87 63 / 10 0 0 10
BZN 91 57 88 58 / 0 0 10 20
WYS 90 50 86 51 / 10 10 50 40
DLN 87 54 85 56 / 10 10 20 30
HVR 87 58 86 59 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 82 54 81 54 / 0 0 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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