154
FXUS65 KTFX 232223
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
423 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IMPACTFUL HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF
IN SOME AREAS.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, MOSTLY IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MT.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HOT
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK, RESULTING IN AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WILL BE
MORE ZONAL BEFORE TRANSITIONING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE
NUDGES BACK WESTWARD EVER SO SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEEKEND. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IS DECREASING, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ISN'T
PARTICULARLY GREAT, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW PERSISTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE DECREASES FURTHER FRIDAY AS A DRIER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FOR ANOTHER DAY. THAT SAID, LINGERING MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. BREEZY WEST WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE PRECIPITATION RECENTLY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKS BACK IN THIS WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES PEAK ACROSS MOST AREAS. ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND, MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT AND VICINITY.
THAT STORY MORE OR LESS PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. HOT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST AFTERNOONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT AND
VICINITY. AREAS FURTHER NORTH ON THE PLAINS LOOK TO REMAIN HOT AND
DRY OVER THIS TIMEFRAME. ANYONE THAT HAS TO BE OUTSIDE FOR ANY
EXTENDED STRETCH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD PREPARE FOR PLENTY OF
HYDRATION BREAKS IN THE SHADE. -AM
AVIATION
23/18Z TAF PERIOD
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY ACROSS SW MT AND
VICINITY NEAR TERRAIN. BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE CONCERN WITH THE
MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THIS COVERAGE LOOKS
ISOLATED AT BEST. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE PLAINS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY WAS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLANT-RANGE VISIBILITY ISSUES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD. -AM
FIRE WEATHER
BECAUSE OF THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES, A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. THE WINDS LOOK TO BE
STRONGER ON FRIDAY, WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE HOTTER ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
OVERALL, EXPECT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 64 98 63 102 / 20 0 0 10
CTB 61 91 58 97 / 20 0 0 0
HLN 63 97 63 99 / 20 20 0 20
BZN 60 97 60 97 / 20 20 20 30
WYS 50 87 51 87 / 30 20 20 40
DLN 57 93 57 92 / 20 20 20 20
HVR 64 101 62 107 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 61 94 61 100 / 20 0 20 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-
CHOUTEAU AND FERGUS COUNTIES-EASTERN
GLACIER/TOOLE/CENTRAL/EASTERN PONDERA/LIBERTY-HILL AND BLAINE
COUNTIES-LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST ROCKY MOUNTAIN DISTRICT-
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR BEAVERHEAD
AND WESTERN MADISON BELOW 6000FT-CANYON FERRY AREA-EASTERN
GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN PONDERA AND
EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-GALLATIN VALLEY-GATES OF
THE MOUNTAINS-HELENA VALLEY-MADISON RIVER VALLEY-MEAGHER COUNTY
VALLEYS-MISSOURI HEADWATERS.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR BEARS
PAW MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN BLAINE-CASCADE COUNTY BELOW 5000FT-
FERGUS COUNTY BELOW 4500FT-HILL COUNTY-JUDITH BASIN COUNTY AND
JUDITH GAP-NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY-WESTERN AND CENTRAL CHOUTEAU
COUNTY.
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