746
FXUS65 KTFX 062352
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
552 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- REDUCED AIR QUALITY AT TIMES FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES.
UPDATE
LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED, WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT
BEING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WHERE AREAS OF
SMOKE AND THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON HAS
HELD TEMPERATURES BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS UPDATE WILL HELP
DIURNAL TRENDS INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THE "COOLER" STARTING POINT.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH NO
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. - MOLDAN
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 534 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST IT WILL START TO
FLATTEN OUT ALLOWING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE PEAK MIXING HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHICH WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME PASSING
WEAK SHORTWAVES POSSIBLE STARTING ON MONDAY WHICH MAY COME WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WILDFIRE SMOKE:
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE PACNW AND MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT AIR QUALITY FOR OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
WHERE AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN AIR
QUALITY ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT
THOSE WHO ARE THE MOST SENSITIVE. THOSE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY
SENSITIVE TO REDUCED AIR QUALITY SHOULD LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS AND
TAKE PREVENTATIVE MEASURES TO ENSURE THEIR SAFETY.
HOT, DRY, BREEZY FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK BUT
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILARLY, VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO
ENHANCED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (DETAILED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION).
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK:
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK A FEW WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY
PROVIDE A CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BUT THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION IN THE MODELS ON HOW THESE WAVES WILL PLAY
OUT AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS EVEN MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR WETTING
RAINFALL. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS ANY AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WELCOMED BUT EVEN IF THESE SHOWERS TREND ON
THE WETTER SIDE IT WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE RELIEF TO THE BIGGER
PICTURE OF OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. -THOR
AVIATION
07/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH SLANT RANGE VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AT KGTF AND THE
SOUTHWEST TERMINALS AROUND 19Z. -DZOMBA
FOR KGTF: BETWEEN 03Z-09Z THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF EASTERLY
CROSSWINDS EXCEEDING 15 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 7-9
KTS BY 20Z.
FIRE WEATHER
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN FWZ 116 AND 118 INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LEWIS AND
CLARK COUNTY, BROADWATER, EASTERN JEFFERSON, AND NORTHWESTERN
GALLATIN COUNTIES. MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY EXPECTED ACROSS THE ZONE. ON TOP OF THAT, GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON BOTH DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED.
FWZ 117 IS WHERE BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MEET
SOME OF THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MEAGHER COUNTY PORTION OF THE ZONE LOOKS
TO REMAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL THROUGH BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONVERSELY, THE CASCADE AND JUDITH BASIN COUNTY PORTIONS OF FWZ
117 ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO REACH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT FOR CASCADE AND JUDITH BASIN BASED ON WHAT IS BEING
OBSERVED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. AS A RESULT, THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO INCLUDE FWZ 117 IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
FURTHER NORTH, FOR FWZ 114 AND 115, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGER
WINDS WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE WATCH. THESE AREAS WILL BE
WATCHED CAREFULLY WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
WILL IMPACT THE THREAT LEVEL AND PROBABILITY OF REACHING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH, SUNDAY COULD ALSO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
CRITICAL ON SUNDAY BUT THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT THREAT LEVEL FOR SUNDAY BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 51 90 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 47 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 54 95 57 95 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 52 95 55 96 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 43 89 45 89 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 52 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 51 88 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 52 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST
AREAS-HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA
NATIONAL FOREST-LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT OF THE HELENA NATIONAL
FOREST.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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