612
FXUS65 KTFX 070530
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1130 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST OR NORTH CENTRAL MT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATER NEXT
WEEK THE TREND IS FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO START TO COOL A
BIT, EVEN GOING A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH STARTING LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE AIRMASS VERY DRY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH ANY STORMS
GENERALLY PRODUCING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. THUS
THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW AREAS HAVE A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM BY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE, PRODUCING VERY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION.
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST MT TODAY/SATURDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
07/00Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH SLANT RANGE VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE, WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING AT KGTF AND THE
SOUTHWEST TERMINALS AROUND 19Z. -DZOMBA
FOR KGTF: BETWEEN 03Z-09Z THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF EASTERLY
CROSSWINDS EXCEEDING 15 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 7-9
KTS BY 20Z.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS FOR
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS,
LOW HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITONS. BECAUSE OF ALL THE SMOKE, SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT MIX THE WINDS ALOFT ON FRI/SAT. OVERALL, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING ON MONDAY. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 61 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 51 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 61 95 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 58 95 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 57 89 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 59 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 55 89 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 56 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-HELENA
AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-
LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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