715
FXUS65 KTFX 070549
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1149 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1130 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST OR NORTH CENTRAL MT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATER NEXT
WEEK THE TREND IS FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO START TO COOL A
BIT, EVEN GOING A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH STARTING LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE AIRMASS VERY DRY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH ANY STORMS
GENERALLY PRODUCING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. THUS
THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW AREAS HAVE A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM BY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE, PRODUCING VERY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION.
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST MT TODAY/SATURDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KBZN, WHICH WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE. WINDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, GRADUALLY INCREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BY 20Z. DUE
TO THICK SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES, CLOUD BASES ARE SCT040 AT
TERMINALS KEKS AND KHLN -RUSSELL
FOR GTF: THE PROBABILITY FOR CROSS WINDS EXCEEDING 15 KNOTS IS
BELOW CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, MID LEVEL WINDS BELOW
700 MPH SHOULD BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS ON FRI. COMBINED WITH SMOKE
MOVING THROUGH, THE PROBABILITY OF MIXING FROM HIGHER THAN 700 MB
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS FOR
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS,
LOW HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITONS. BECAUSE OF ALL THE SMOKE, SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT MIX THE WINDS ALOFT ON FRI/SAT. OVERALL, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING ON MONDAY. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 61 91 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 51 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 61 95 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 58 95 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 57 89 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 59 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 55 89 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 56 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-HELENA
AND TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-
LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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