183
FXUS65 KTFX 071818
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1218 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 549 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN THE GREAT BASIN FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWEST OR NORTH CENTRAL MT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATER NEXT
WEEK THE TREND IS FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO START TO COOL A
BIT, EVEN GOING A BIT BELOW NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH STARTING LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE AIRMASS VERY DRY,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH ANY STORMS
GENERALLY PRODUCING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE. THUS
THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ARE MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW AREAS HAVE A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM BY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP ARE GOING TO BE MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE, PRODUCING VERY
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION.
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST MT TODAY/SATURDAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
07/18Z TAF PERIOD
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE AN ONGOING CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR MOST TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THE
PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE TO SLANTWISE VISIBILITY WITH PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION EXPECTED.
GREATER SURFACE VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH HEAVIER SMOKE COMING FROM THE FIRES IN THE
PIONEER MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO REACH KBZN AND KEKS AFTER 07/21Z
AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST 08/04Z. DURING THIS TIME PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
KWYS AND THE SURROUNDING VALLEY IS UNIQUELY POSITIONED SUCH THAT
SMOKE MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
IN SURFACE VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH REDUCTIONS IN SLANTWISE VISIBILITY
ARE STILL EXPECTED.
FOR KGTF: WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
CROSSWINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15KTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
INITIALLY START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 08/10Z AND
START TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE LATE MORNING TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. ON THE HIGHER END, CROSSWINDS IN THE 10-12KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
EXCEEDING A 15KT CROSSWIND AT THIS TIME.
REGARDING WILDFIRE SMOKE, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE
REDUCTIONS IN SLANTWISE VISIBILITY. A LARGER CONCERN FOR
SURFACE VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
COINCIDING WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE SMOKE GENERATED BY FIRES IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA. -THOR
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS FOR
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS,
LOW HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITONS. BECAUSE OF ALL THE SMOKE, SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
NOT MIX THE WINDS ALOFT ON FRI/SAT. OVERALL, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING ON MONDAY. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 91 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 86 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 95 57 94 57 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 95 55 95 54 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 89 45 88 45 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 92 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 89 52 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 87 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER
DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT
OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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