248
FXUS65 KTFX 080548
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1148 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
- IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURNING PRIMARILY TO NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 607 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026/
EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAS BEEN PUBLISHED, WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT
BEING TO RE-RUN SMOKE GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE DISPERSAL. THE MOOSE, SAND CREEK, AND BOBCAT
LAKES FIRES BURNING WITHIN THE BEAVERHEAD-DEERLODGE NATIONAL
FOREST HAVE BEEN PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SMOKE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH
PYROCUMULUS EVEN BEING PRODUCED OVER THE SAND CREEK FIRE. THIS
SMOKEHAS RESULTED IN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS WESTERLY WINDS TRANSPORT THE
SMOKE EASTWARD, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO AS LOW AS 2 TO 4 MILES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. - MOLDAN
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 607 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN. THIS WILL
KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING THERE IS MODESTLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. DUE TO MODESTLY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON
SUNDAY UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER.
SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL BE AROUND THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WARM
AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MONSOONAL MOISTURE GRADUALLY MAKES IT UP TO MONTANA. THIS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE
GREATEST FORCING IS ALONG THE HI-LINE AND SO THAT IS WHERE THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE. SEE THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS SECTION FOR DETAILS. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON SATURDAY THERE IS GREATER THAN A 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF
25 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SATURDAY THE HREF (HI-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE
FORECAST) HAS A 50 - 70% CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR
GREATER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 20% ACROSS MUCH OF FERGUS
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CHOTEAU COUNTY. SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE
ZONE WILL NOT HAVE 15 MPH WIND SPEEDS AND/OR CONSISTENT WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS
THAN 20% FOR THREE HOURS AND SINCE THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT AT
THIS TIME A RED FLAG WARNING WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THE FIRE WEATHER
ZONE CONTAINING MOST OF FERGUS AND CHOTEAU COUNTIES.
ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HI-
LINE AND A 15% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A 60%
CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER ALONG THE HI-LINE.
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THERE IS A 20 - 40%
CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. -IG
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT KBZN, KEKS AND KHLN, WHICH WILL SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE CAUSING A REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY. FOR ALL THE TERMINALS, THERE WILL BE TIMES OF REDUCED
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE PRODUCED FROM REGIONAL
WILDFIRES.
OVERALL, KBZN AND KEKS WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE PIONEER MOUNTAINS. DUE
TO THESE THICK SMOKE PLUMES, CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 4500-5000 FT
FOR THE BEGINNING PERIOD OF THESE TWO TAFS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOWER TONIGHT ACROSS SW MT THAN
WHAT THE ASOS ARE REPORTING DUE TO A NIGHTTIME ALGORITHM BEING
USED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING AROUND 18-20Z, ESPECIALLY IN SW MT. GUSTS BETWEEN
15-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED. WHILE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY IN THE MORNING, THESE AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CAUSE A RETURN OF WILDFIRE SMOKE.
KGTF: WHILE SKIES WILL REMAIN FEW250 TO CLEAR, SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO SMOKE FROM REGIONAL
WILDFIRES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND 19Z, IN
WHICH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE TO 7-9 KTS. AT 16Z, WINDS
BECOME PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY, WITH CHANCES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 15 KT INCREASING TO 30%. BY 22Z, WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND
CHANCES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT INCREASE TO 50-60%. BY
09/05Z, CHANCES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 5%. -DZOMBA
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITONS. BECAUSE OF ALL THE SMOKE, SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT NOT MIX
THE WINDS ALOFT ON FRI/SAT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. IG/BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 53 89 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 50 82 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 57 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 54 92 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 43 88 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 53 91 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 51 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 54 87 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-HELENA AND TOWNSEND RANGER
DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-LINCOLN RANGER DISTRICT
OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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