168
FXUS65 KTFX 081911
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
111 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT SMOKE, WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SOME PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILDFIRE SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM OR, WA, AND ID WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RESULT. NEAR TO A
TOUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THIS TIMEFRAME,
WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE OR THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THEY LOOK TO BE
VERY ISOLATED.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAVOR OF A COOLER
STRETCH WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME RAIN. AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BE MOST FAVORED, WHILE AREAS NEAR THE ID
BORDER LOOK LESS FAVORED. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
RAIN AND TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IS GREATER THAN 50% ACROSS THE HI-LINE, SLOWLY DECREASING AS
YOU HEAD FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHWEST MONTANA. BY THURSDAY THE
PROBABILITY FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF LESS THAN 70 F IS 50% OR
GREATER OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. SOUTHWEST VALLEYS LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER, HENCE THE PROBABILITY FOR A 70 F OR LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY IS 30% OR LESS. -AM
AVIATION
08/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE KBZN AND KEKS TERMINALS. THROUGH AT LEAST
09/06Z SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS
AND PERIODICALLY TO IFR-LEVELS AT THE KEKS AND KBZN TERMINALS. AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES DURING THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE
WIND SHIFTS. ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL
REDUCE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA DUE TO SMOKE.
-IG
KGTF: FOR THE MOST PART TODAY WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 15 KTS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AROUND 21Z, SHIFT TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 00Z, AND SHIFT TO
MORE EASTERLY BY 03Z. THE PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING A 15 KT
CROSSWIND IS 30% BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. -IG
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS
THROUGH TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITONS. BECAUSE OF ALL THE SMOKE, SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT NOT MIX
THE WINDS ALOFT TODAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RED FLAG
WARNING TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. EXPECT SOME WIND SHIFTS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES/WETTER
CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 50 80 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 57 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 53 87 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 44 85 44 87 / 20 0 0 0
DLN 52 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 55 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 55 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK NATIONAL FOREST AREAS-HELENA AND
TOWNSEND RANGER DISTRICTS OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST-LINCOLN
RANGER DISTRICT OF THE HELENA NATIONAL FOREST.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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