418
FXUS65 KTFX 090538
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1138 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- PERSISTENT SMOKE, WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SOME PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, WITH GREATEST PROBABILITY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILDFIRE SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM OR, WA, AND ID WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION AS A RESULT. NEAR TO A
TOUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER THIS TIMEFRAME,
WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HERE OR THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THEY LOOK TO BE
VERY ISOLATED.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAVOR OF A COOLER
STRETCH WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME RAIN. AREAS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL BE MOST FAVORED, WHILE AREAS NEAR THE ID
BORDER LOOK LESS FAVORED. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
RAIN AND TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK:
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IS GREATER THAN 50% ACROSS THE HI-LINE, SLOWLY DECREASING AS
YOU HEAD FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHWEST MONTANA. BY THURSDAY THE
PROBABILITY FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF LESS THAN 70 F IS 50% OR
GREATER OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. SOUTHWEST VALLEYS LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER, HENCE THE PROBABILITY FOR A 70 F OR LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON THURSDAY IS 30% OR LESS. -AM
AVIATION
09/06Z TAF PERIOD
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE VISIBILITY REDUCED BY SMOKE OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MT. MOUNTAINS/PASSES
WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT SOME
SURFACE WIND SHIFTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS, IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.
KGTF: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE THE SHIFTING WINDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 56 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 50 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 57 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 53 87 52 91 / 20 0 0 0
WYS 44 85 44 86 / 20 0 0 0
DLN 52 85 52 89 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 55 86 52 88 / 20 10 0 0
LWT 55 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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