895
FXUS65 KTFX 110542
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1142 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZY, VERY WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY
WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
- A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WHILE SOME AREAS MAY SEE BENEFICIAL RAINS, THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ALSO INITIATE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF NORMALLY PRONE AREAS.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE HAZY, VERY WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF INITIATING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER, THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BEGIN TO CREEP TOWARDS THE HI-LINE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEASONABLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH AT TIMES.
A PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH BC/AB AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW AVERAGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL DIFFER ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE
RAINFALL WILL BE. THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD
IS GENERALLY FAVORED TO SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WHILE
SOME AREAS MAY SEE BENEFICIAL RAINS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BRING A FEW ROBUST
STORMS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF FLOODING OF NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL INITIALLY RUN IN 200 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 300 TO 900 J/KG ON THURSDAY WHEN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PEAK. IT BEGINS TO DECREASE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETREATING TO SOUTHWEST MT.
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
BUT ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BACK TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP, ALONG WITH DAILY SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. - RCG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
BREEZY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING WINDS, AND LOCALIZED ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER DAY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OR DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING WIND SHIFTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO OR NEAR CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS WITH
ONLY MODERATE TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THE HOTTEST, DRIEST,
AND BREEZIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHWEST MT WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY. THOSE WORKING TO CONTAIN
ONGOING FIRES SHOULD CONTINUE BE MINDFUL OF THE HOT, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES, SOME STRONGER STORMS, AND BENEFICIAL RAINS
FOR SOME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CLIMATE
ANOMALY INDICES, INCLUDING THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX ARE
SHOWING SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THIS RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY WELCOME,
THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS TO CONSIDER. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN UNEVEN DISTRIBUTION AND INCREASED
INSTANCES OF STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND EVEN FLOODING OF NORMALLY PRONE AREAS. AT THIS
TIME, THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR ON
THURSDAY.
SCATTERED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY THIS WEEKEND
WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS UP AND DRIES OUT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH DAYS,
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
LOCALIZED STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- RCG
AVIATION
11/06Z TAF PERIOD
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST MT. EXPECT MOUNTAINS/PASSES TO BE OBSCURED ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR KGTF: OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PROBABILITY OF CROSS WINDS OVER 15 KNOTS IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE VISIBILITY WHICH COULD BE AS LOW
AS ABOUT 4SM AT TIMES. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 54 86 54 79 / 0 0 0 60
CTB 50 81 48 67 / 0 0 10 70
HLN 54 89 54 81 / 0 0 0 30
BZN 52 90 53 86 / 0 0 0 20
WYS 42 85 46 81 / 0 0 0 20
DLN 50 88 52 84 / 0 0 0 20
HVR 53 86 52 79 / 10 0 20 40
LWT 52 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 70
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT FOR TUESDAY.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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