032
FNUS75 KTFX 211146
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR SMITH GULCH...HIDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON AUGUST 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A WAVE OF
WEAKENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING. MORE
IMPACTFUL STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND GUSTS WITH THESE MAY EXCEED 60 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST CORES IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HAIL, AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON SUNDAY, THOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF
THE INCIDENT SITE. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY WITH
LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). THEN INCREASING CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGETOP...........NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26 41 26 23 21 23 18 28 21 21 20 31
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............63 62 65 67 72 75 77 81 84 87 88 88
RH..............40 42 41 39 38 37 35 31 27 24 22 22
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10
RIDGE WIND DIR..NW NW W SW SW SW W W W W NW N
RIDGE WIND SPD..5 5 5 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 5.0 5.0 5.5 5.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW N N N N N N NW N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP...........NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10
TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER 3
AM.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........60 57 89 87 69 80 60 69 84 89 88 94
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............88 86 84 78 76 74 72 70 69 68 66 65
RH..............22 23 26 31 34 36 39 41 42 45 46 47
20 FT WIND DIR..NE N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST. 15 15 15 10 10 10 10
RIDGE WIND DIR..N NE E E E E E SE S S S S
RIDGE WIND SPD..5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE N N N N N N N NE E NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
ANY SHOWER OR STORMS THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10
TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........96 96 96 92 92 92 38 38 38 55 55 55
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).20 20 10 0 10 10 20 10 10 10 20 20
TEMP............65 63 65 68 72 74 77 81 84 85 87 85
RH..............50 50 50 50 44 41 37 35 30 22 20 18
20 FT WIND DIR..NW N N SE SE SE E E E S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S SW W SW SW SW SW W W W NW
RIDGE WIND SPD..15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.5 4.0 7.0 7.5 7.0 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW S S S SW W SW W SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 10 5 5 10 10 15 15 10 10
FORECASTER...GREELY
REQUESTED BY...RCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620054.2/TFX
.DELDT 08/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MTHDC@FIRENET.GOV,MATTHEW.GINGERY@USDA.GOV,SETH.BOND@USDA.GOV,
TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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