615
FXUS65 KTFX 271109
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
509 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1158 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AMPLE MOISTURE AND FORCING INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY,
LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY WITH THE DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSING THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND TURNS
INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SOME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT IT DOES NOT LAST LONG AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS MONTANA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. -THOR
AVIATION
27/12Z TAF PERIOD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON TODAY AND BRINGS INCREASED SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH- CENTRAL MT. THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE BETWEEN 27/20 AND 28/04Z. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF MVFR/IFR BENEATH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CORES.
FOR KGTF : PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MOSTLY BETWEEN 27/22 AND 28/03Z.
LOCALIZED STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. EVEN
WITHOUT A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT, NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT RESULT IN CROSSWINDS EXCEEDING 15
KTS. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. THERE IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF
CROSSWINDS OVER 15 KTS. - RCG
FIRE WEATHER
VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PASSING WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS OVER 50 MPH,WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD NEW FIRES. TODAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE BREEZIEST AND DRIEST DAYS FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90, WITH UP TO A 20% CHANCE FOR
THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX TO EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NOT PLANNED TO BE SENT OUT AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. A PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRODUCTIVE STORMS LOOKS TO REDUCE THE
FIRE RISK. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 93 57 87 57 / 30 30 10 10
CTB 86 55 80 50 / 20 10 0 0
HLN 89 54 83 56 / 40 30 10 20
BZN 89 52 81 51 / 30 30 30 60
WYS 82 43 71 40 / 20 40 70 80
DLN 86 51 79 49 / 40 20 20 50
HVR 97 59 90 56 / 10 30 10 20
LWT 93 57 84 55 / 30 30 20 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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