225
FXUS65 KTFX 271755
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1155 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- BREEZY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 509 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING AMPLE MOISTURE AND FORCING INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY,
LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY WITH THE DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSING THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND TURNS
INTO A CUTOFF LOW WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SOME WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT IT DOES NOT LAST LONG AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS MONTANA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. -THOR
AVIATION
27/18Z TAF PERIOD
THERE WILL BE WIDEPSREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL MT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
TO BE SEVERE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
BETWEEN 27/21Z AND 28/03Z. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-50 KT AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR THE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR BENEATH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES.
FOR KGTF : MULTIPLE WAVES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 28/03Z. PRIMARY
THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS
OF UP TO 40 KT AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERY RAIN COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY BRIEFLY WITHIN THE
STRONGER CELLS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT TIMING OF STORM
MODE MOVEMENT HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF HI-RES MODEL MEMBERS ALIGN
WITH HIGHEST CONVECTIVE DENSITY FROM 27/21Z TO 23Z AND 28/00 TO
02Z. GREATEST THREATS FOR CROSSWIND EXCEEDANCE WILL BE A 50%
PROBABILITY OF SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS FROM 22-23Z, 70% FROM 00-02Z,
AND 30% FROM 03-04Z. - AKINS
FIRE WEATHER
VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PASSING WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS OVER 50 MPH,WHICH MAY HELP SPREAD NEW FIRES. TODAY AND
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE BREEZIEST AND DRIEST DAYS FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOCATIONS NORTH OF I90, WITH UP TO A 20% CHANCE FOR
THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX TO EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE. FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NOT PLANNED TO BE SENT OUT AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, BUT THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. A PACIFIC TROUGH BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS THIS WEEKEND; HOWEVER,
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE PRODUCTIVE STORMS LOOKS TO REDUCE THE
FIRE RISK. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 57 87 57 78 / 30 10 10 70
CTB 55 80 50 73 / 10 0 0 40
HLN 54 83 56 77 / 30 10 20 70
BZN 52 81 51 76 / 30 30 60 70
WYS 43 71 40 65 / 40 70 80 100
DLN 51 79 49 75 / 20 20 50 70
HVR 59 90 56 83 / 30 10 20 20
LWT 57 84 55 77 / 30 20 20 60
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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