176
FXUS65 KTFX 282347
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
547 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AT RIDGE TOPS ON SUNDAY.
- BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME. STRATIFORM RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION DRIVERS CURRENTLY HOWEVER ISOLATED
EMBEDDED AND AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL STRATIFORM DRIES OUT AND DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS
MAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S TODAY WILL
FALL TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE CWA AND EXITS MONDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CREATE STRONG AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD.
AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
WINDS DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING AND CROSS-BARRIER
DOWNSLOPING.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE CWA BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL PWAT'S AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. - AKINS
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
EFI'S INDICATE ELEVATED WINDS ABOVE CLIMATE NORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS WELL AS HIGHER THAN NORMAL QPF'S FOR THE
SOUTHWEST OF MONTANA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NBM SIGNALS OF 80%+
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KT FOR NORTHERN RMF AND
LEESIDE OF CRAZY MTNS ALONG HWY 191. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT STILL
WORTH MENTIONING FOR GUSTS OVER 50 KT WITH NBM SIGNALING 30%
PROBABILITY IN THE SAME AREAS. PROBABILITIES COULD INCREASE OR
DECREASE DEPENDING ON LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW'S
TRACK AS WELL AS TIMING OF THE JET STREAK POSITION DURING MAXIMUM
MIXED LAYER TIMES ON SUNDAY. FOR QPF'S ON SATURDAY, NBM IS
INDICATING A 40% PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL OVER 1" FOR THE WEST
YELLOWSTONE AREA FROM NOON SATURDAY UNTIL 6PM SUNDAY AS WELL AS
30% PROBABILITIES OF OVER 1" IN THE LITTLE BELTS AND BRIDGER MTNS.
- AKINS
AVIATION
29/00Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT
LOWER CEILINGS ON SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER SOUTHWEST MT. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA BY CLOUDS/PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR KGTF: EXPECT SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT
0130Z THIS EVENING, THEN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THE PROBABILITY LOOKED TO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THE
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN THE TAF. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 58 79 50 67 / 20 60 80 60
CTB 50 74 46 62 / 10 40 60 30
HLN 54 78 48 70 / 10 90 80 50
BZN 52 77 46 69 / 20 60 80 70
WYS 40 65 35 65 / 60 90 90 80
DLN 51 75 43 71 / 50 70 70 40
HVR 56 86 50 70 / 20 40 70 60
LWT 55 79 47 67 / 20 70 60 80
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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