022
FXUS65 KTFX 020113
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
713 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 250 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMTH TO
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS
LOCALES HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S, WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN OUR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION
TO THE WARMTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP
UP ACROSS BEAVERHEAD COUNTY, AND THESE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WHILE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA, PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS. AS THESE STORMS REACH THE
PLAINS, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT, ALONG WITH DRY MID
LEVELS AND A VERY DEEP AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, SOME OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE OVER 60 MPH. WITH THIS IN MIND, SPC HAS UPGRADED OUR
MARGINAL RISK TO A SLIGHT RISK (1/5 TO 2/5) FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT GOING TO BE
QUITE AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SHOULD ALSO BRING GENERALLY
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE TREASURE STATE EAST OF THE DIVIDE, ASIDE
FROM A FEW ISOLATED STRAY SHOWERS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND,
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND
WASHINGTON WILL KEEP US ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE, AND MAY EVENTUALLY
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM MARIE TO
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN US AND INTO MONTANA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LUDWIG
AVIATION
02/00Z TAF PERIOD
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE MOST OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS REMAINS LOW, SO UTILIZED
PROB30 GROUPS TO HANDLE THE THREAT. KWYS, KBZN, AND KHLN ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EVEN WITHIN ANY LIGHT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER,
LOWER CLOUD DECKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY SUPPORT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AT KEKS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WINDS
LARGELY CALM DOWN BEFORE RAMPING UP AROUND 20Z WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WINDS OF 20-30KT ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST
TERMINALS KWYS AND KEKS SEEING GUSTS PUSHING 35KTS WITH A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. OCCASIONAL SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE OCCASIONAL REDUCTION IN SLANTWISE
VISIBILITIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FOR KGTF: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT
LEAST 05Z WITH CHANCES OF EXCEEDING THE 15KT CROSSWIND THRESHOLD
NEAR 20% AS WINDS ARE LARGELY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 05Z AS WIND DIRECTION FLIPS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION MAKING THE PROBABILITY OF CROSSWINDS EXCEEDING THE
STATED THRESHOLD LOWERED TO NEAR 10%.
-JR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 85 57 85 50 / 0 0 40 10
CTB 83 52 80 46 / 0 0 80 50
HLN 86 52 82 48 / 0 40 40 10
BZN 82 50 81 48 / 10 30 10 0
WYS 69 38 66 34 / 60 70 20 0
DLN 81 46 77 44 / 0 50 20 0
HVR 88 54 90 50 / 0 0 30 40
LWT 83 55 85 49 / 0 0 10 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR MADISON
RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
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