122
FXUS65 KTFX 020612
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1212 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS AND A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WILL SWEEP
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HI-LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
WINDS OVER 60 MPH.
- HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MADISON RIVER VALLEY
WHERE NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 60 MPH.
- |STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
20-30% WILL CAUSE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
WEDNESDAY SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT:
AN UNUSUALLY ENERGETIC MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING
JET STREAK WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX GUIDANCE (EFI) HIGHLIGHTS AN ANOMALOUS WIND
EVENT, WITH VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND A HIGH SHIFT OF TAILS
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE HI-LINE.
POLEWARD MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL YIELD HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL FOSTER
ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE HI-LINE,
FEATURING WIDESPREAD SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR 35KTS. CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH, LARGELY
ABOVE 8KFT, ABOVE THE SUPERADIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP MID
AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPWARDS OF 9 C/KM.
REGARDING TIMING, CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER SW MONTANA IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON (17Z-19Z). STORM MODE LOOKS TO LARGELY FAVOR
INDIVIDUAL CELL CLUSTERS INITIATING OFF TERRAIN AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST. AS THE STORMS CREST THE RIDGE LINE, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO GROW MORE UPSCALE INTO A BROKEN
SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND HI-LINE. STORM MOTION WILL BE
FAST, ASSISTING THE STORMS OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING (23Z-01Z). STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION WILL GENERATE HIGH
DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG, WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE 40-60KT MID-LEVEL JET, WILL DRIVE A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 TO 75 MPH
ACROSS THE PLAIN AND HI-LINE.
SOUTHWEST MONTANA SYNOPTIC HIGH WIND & FIRE WEATHER:
AN ANOMALOUS 700MB SOUTHERLY JET STREAK OF 30-40KTS WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FUNNELING DOWN NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS WILL SUPPORT STRONG SYNOPTIC GUSTS.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 55 MPH ARE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
MADISON RIVER VALLEY NEARING 45% WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
POSSIBLE, SUPPORTING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. ADJACENT VALLEYS,
BEAVERHEAD AND BLACKTAIL WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW (<20%) IN WINDS EXCEEDING 55 MPH. THAT BEING SAID, 45-50
MPH GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. POOR OVERNIGHT DECOUPLING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP THE THREAT ELEVATED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN WARNING CRITERIA
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, DEEP MIXING WILL DROP MINIMUM RH AS LOW AS 15%
WITH WIDESPREAD 20-30% VALUES PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THOSE FACTORS COMBINED WITH ONGOING FIRES AND
CURED FUELS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS
WAVE. A BROADER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND UPPER JET STREAK WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE EXACT PROGRESSION OF EVENTS, ITS WORTH NOTING THE
POTENTIAL RETURN OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION.
THE CUT OFF PACIFIC LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BARRAGE OF SHORTWAVES
AND RESULTING ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKS TO DISLODGE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE IMMEDIATE IMPACTS BUT THERE IS
INCREASING CHANCES OF A REGIME CHANGE TO BROADER SYNOPTIC FORCING.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WEDNESDAY CONVECTIVE WINDS: HIGH CONFIDENCE (>80%) IN THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL POSE THE RISK OF SEVERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH GIVEN
STRONG MULTI-ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT. SOUNDINGS AREA WIDE SUPPORT
EFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY FOR STORM
MAINTENANCE.
SW MONTANA HIGH WINDS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (60%) IN MEETING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA IN TERRAIN-ALIGNED VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE PEAK OF THE 700MB JET IS OVERHEAD. CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO
THURSDAY AS THE JET STREAK EXITS NORTH AND EAST.
FIRE WEATHER: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%) IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE HIGHEST SOURCE OF CONFIDENCE,
HUMIDITY IS OUR LOWEST WITH VALUES BORDERLINE. HOWEVER, DEEP MIXING
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS DOES SUPPORT VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL
VALUES.
EXTENDED REGIME: LOW CONFIDENCE (30%) IN THE OVERALL CHANGES IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. CUT OFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT IN THE LONG RANGE AS ARE THE RESULTING IMPACTS.
- JR [THNKS TO ERIC A & EVAN T FOR PREPARING ME TO WRITE MY 1ST AFD]
AVIATION
02/06Z TAF PERIOD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RAIN. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KEKS. GIVEN THE RAINFALL EARLIER THIS
EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CALM WINDS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPING AT KWYS AHEAD OF THE INCREASE OF WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BREEZY SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH 20-30KT SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING UP TO
40KTS. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS ALONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS MAY
PUSH WIND GUSTS AT KEKS ABOVE 50KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, THUNDERSTORMS WILL START
TO REACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 02/17Z AND QUICKLY MAKE THEIR WAY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY START TO BOW OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE TERMINALS THAT MAY BE HIT THE HARDEST WILL BE KGTF AND KHVR
WHERE HI-RES MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WIND GUSTS UP TO
60KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGTF AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH.
BEHIND THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FOR KGTF: WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL QUICKLY PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR EXCEEDING A 15KT
CROSSWIND BETWEEN 02/18Z AND 02/20Z. AFTER 02/20Z THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING. RECENT MODELS HAVE TRIED TO PUSH THE TIMING OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER BUT THE CURRENT WINDOW OF CONFIDENCE IS STILL
BETWEEN 02/22Z AND 02/24Z. RIGHT NOW THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE CAMS FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
60KTS WELL WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS
AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT WITH THIS LINE FROM A MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03/04Z BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AS
THE NIGHT CONTINUES. THE THREAT FOR CROSSWINDS WILL BE LOW BUT THE
HEADWINDS MAY BE ABOVE 15KTS THROUGH AT LEAST 03/03Z. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 84 50 77 49 / 50 10 0 10
CTB 78 45 68 44 / 90 40 0 30
HLN 80 49 77 50 / 60 10 0 10
BZN 80 48 77 48 / 10 0 0 0
WYS 65 34 64 35 / 10 10 20 0
DLN 75 45 73 45 / 30 10 0 10
HVR 88 49 81 50 / 30 30 0 0
LWT 84 49 79 51 / 30 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MADISON RIVER VALLEY.
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