609
FXUS65 KTFX 030236
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
836 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY.
- IT WILL COOL OFF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ENDED FOR OUR CWA FOR TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE ENNIS/NORRIS HILL AREA HAS ALSO ENDED.
JUST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING, AS THE
PRECIPITATION ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 200 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG LOW-
LEVEL WINDS IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED VALLEYS. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
ON FRIDAY A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
REMAINS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOUT SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 40 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR
GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
FIRE WEATHER: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%) IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE HIGHEST SOURCE OF CONFIDENCE, HUMIDITY IS
OUR LOWEST WITH VALUES BORDERLINE. HOWEVER, DEEP MIXING
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS DOES SUPPORT VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL
VALUES.
EXTENDED REGIME: LOW CONFIDENCE (30%) IN THE OVERALL CHANGES IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. CUT OFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT IN THE LONG RANGE AS ARE THE RESULTING IMPACTS.
AVIATION
03/00Z TAF PERIOD
TERMINAL KHVR HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF -TSRA
THROUGH 02Z AS OUT PRIMARY SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS
WILL LARGELY CALM DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST TERMINAL
KWYS, KEKS, AND KBZN REMAINING BREEZY ABOVE 10KTS. WINDS RAMP BACK
UP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS MOVING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS OUR
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS MONTANA. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THURSDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE
ACROSS TERMINAL KEKS, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN KWYS. IF THESE
STORMS WERE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL, EXPECTED LOWERED CEILINGS AND
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
FOR KGTF: GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03/04Z
BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. THE THREAT FOR
CROSSWINDS WILL BE LOW BUT THE HEADWINDS MAY BE ABOVE 15KTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 03/05Z. WINDS WILL AGAIN RAMP UP 03/17Z. FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z PROBABILITY OF CROSS WINDS
MEETING THE 15KT THRESHOLD IS 20% BEFORE WINDS SOLIDLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF CROSS WINDS EXCEEDING THE
15KT THRESHOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
-JR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 50 76 49 74 / 10 0 10 10
CTB 46 66 45 66 / 40 0 30 10
HLN 46 75 47 74 / 10 0 10 30
BZN 47 76 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 33 64 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 42 72 41 74 / 10 0 10 20
HVR 50 80 51 81 / 30 0 0 0
LWT 49 77 52 80 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT.
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