992
FXUS65 KTFX 030457
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1057 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY.
- IT WILL COOL OFF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 836 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026/
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ENDED FOR OUR CWA FOR TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE ENNIS/NORRIS HILL AREA HAS ALSO ENDED.
JUST A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING, AS THE
PRECIPITATION ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 836 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS AN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG LOW-
LEVEL WINDS IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED VALLEYS. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
ON FRIDAY A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
REMAINS OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOUT SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 40 - 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH OR
GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ON SATURDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. ON SUNDAY THERE IS A 15 - 30%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. -IG
FIRE WEATHER: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%) IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE THE HIGHEST SOURCE OF CONFIDENCE, HUMIDITY IS
OUR LOWEST WITH VALUES BORDERLINE. HOWEVER, DEEP MIXING
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS DOES SUPPORT VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL
VALUES.
EXTENDED REGIME: LOW CONFIDENCE (30%) IN THE OVERALL CHANGES IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. CUT OFF LOWS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT IN THE LONG RANGE AS ARE THE RESULTING IMPACTS.
AVIATION
03/00Z TAF PERIOD
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (30%) LEADING USE
OF PROB30 PERIODS FOR TERMINALS KWYS, AND KEKS. IF SHOWERS WERE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL, EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED CLOUD BASES AND MORE
ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS. THE
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF GUSTY WINDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TERMINALS
KWYS, KEKS, AND KBZN WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH GUSTS WILL EXCEED
30KTS THURSDAY 18Z-23Z.
FOR KGTF: WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LARGELY CALM AND VARIABLE BEFORE
INCREASING AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HEADWINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN EXCESS OF 15KT GUSTING TO 25KTS FROM
03/17Z TO 04/00Z WITH A LOW PROBABILITY (<10%) OF CROSSWINDS
EXCEEDING THE 15KT THRESHOLD. AS WINDS WEAKEN AFTER 04/00Z THEY
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BRINGING A HEIGHTENED BUT STILL LOW
(20%) RISK OF CROSSWINDS EXCEEDING 15KTS.
-JR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 82 50 76 49 / 60 10 0 10
CTB 79 46 66 45 / 90 40 0 30
HLN 78 46 75 47 / 80 10 0 10
BZN 81 47 76 45 / 20 0 0 0
WYS 68 33 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 76 42 72 41 / 30 10 0 10
HVR 88 50 80 51 / 50 30 0 0
LWT 88 49 77 52 / 40 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
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