771
FXUS65 KTFX 071736
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1136 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER COOLER WETTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
/ISSUED 855 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026/
UPDATED FORECAST IS OUT FOR THIS MORNING, WITH POPS MOSTLY
FRESHENED FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING. A BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES
TO PUSH NORTHWARD THIS MORNING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MT. RAINFALL
AROUND A HALF INCH IS COMMON WITH THIS BAND. OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WEST OF BOZEMAN CURRENTLY. THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR FROM
BROWNING TO HARLEM THIS AFTERNOON. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 855 AM MDT MON SEP 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
DEEP AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE TREASURE STATE OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS, BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL AND WET WEATHER.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
WILL GRADUALLY COALESCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, WHERE THEY WILL MORE OR LESS PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RESPITE FROM THE WET WEATHER WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITS THE
AREA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
CLOSER TO AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD WILL NOT
LAST LONG, HOWEVER, AS OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY: MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ALONG THE HI-LINE, WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.5
TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
EXTRA CLOSELY, AS THIS EXTRA MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR THE RAINFALL TO OVER SATURATE SOME OF THE
SOILS LOCALLY AND RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. LUDWIG
AVIATION
07/18Z TAF PERIOD
A RAIN BAND/SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND US HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THIS LINE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODIC MODERATE BANDS OF RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS LASTING UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR KGTF: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP NEAR THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE
WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30KTS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THE RAIN SHIELD
LATER TONIGHT SHIFTS DOWN TO THE TERMINAL OR JUST STAY TO THE
NORTH. -WILSON
HYDROLOGY
WHILE AREAS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT HAVE RECEIVED 0.75" TO
1.5" OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO, THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH
OF A RESPONSE IN CREEKS/STREAMS YET DUE TO THE DRIER GROUNDING
SOAKING ALL THE RAIN UP. THE MAIN CONCERN IS ANOTHER ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED 4 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING ON A MORE SATURATED GROUND. AREAS THAT GET THE HIGHER END
3 TO 4 INCH TOTALS MAY SEE MINOR OVERFLOW IN CREEKS/STREAMS ALONG
WITH MUDDIED RURAL ROADS. THE WET CONDITIONS CAN ALSO CAUSE
ROCK/DEBRIS SLIDES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH
WAS ISSUED THROUGH TUESDAY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WILL SEE WETTING RAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THOSE HIGHER END TOTALS
REMAIN LOW. TWO THINGS TO WATCH FOR IS ANY EASTERN SHIFT OF THESE
AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST ALONG US HIGHWAY 2 TOWARDS HILL COUNTY, AND
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT AFFECT AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT COULD SEE SOME INCREASED RISK FOR MINOR FLOODING.
-WILSON/LUDWIG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 63 46 64 43 / 100 40 70 10
CTB 56 43 60 43 / 100 90 70 0
HLN 65 43 68 44 / 100 0 20 0
BZN 67 39 70 39 / 90 0 0 0
WYS 60 30 63 30 / 30 0 0 0
DLN 66 36 70 37 / 40 0 0 0
HVR 67 46 63 43 / 100 90 90 40
LWT 67 43 64 41 / 90 10 40 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-
EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN
PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
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