783
FXUS65 KTFX 080606
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1206 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 607 PM MDT MON SEP 7 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
MT TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CWA, WITH AN AREA OF STEADY
RAINFALL CONTINUING AROUND GLACIER PARK AND IN THE CUT BANK AREA.
ON TUESDAY, A 2ND UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MT ON TUE AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL RESULTING IN
WARMER AIR SLOWLY MOVING BACK INTO THE CWA. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
NOT LAST LONG, AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
CWA BY LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL MT
BY SUNDAY. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET OR SO. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN GLACIER PARK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT THE CWA ON MONDAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR FLOODING AROUND GLACIER PARK, AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HOW LOW DOES THE
SNOW LEVEL GET. CURRENTLY WE ARE THINKING SNOW LEVELS COULD BE AS
LOW AS 7000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION
08/06Z TAF PERIOD
A MIX OF LOW VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TERMINALS (KGTF, KCTB, KHVR, KLWT) AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW BEFORE
RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AND THEN WINDS DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. FOR SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS,
KHLN), EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY HERE AS WELL, BUT SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 15-20KTS.
FOR KGTF: EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WESTERLY (240-270
DEGREES) WINDS TO 25KTS THROUGH 2Z WILL KEEP CROSSWINDS OVER 15KTS
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. LUDWIG
HYDROLOGY
AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST SIDE OF GLACIER
PARK, BROWNING, CUT BANK AND SHELBY AREAS INTO TUESDAY. PERIODS OF
STEADY RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THIS AREA, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALREADY IN THIS AREA.
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND
TUESDAY. THUS SOME MINOR FLOOD IMPACTS COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY
OR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 62 48 63 43 / 100 40 70 10
CTB 53 44 61 44 / 100 90 90 0
HLN 67 43 67 42 / 90 0 10 0
BZN 65 39 69 38 / 60 0 20 0
WYS 54 30 64 30 / 20 0 0 0
DLN 64 36 70 37 / 20 0 0 0
HVR 61 46 64 43 / 100 90 90 30
LWT 64 45 64 41 / 90 0 30 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-
EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-EASTERN
PONDERA AND EASTERN TETON-EASTERN TOOLE AND LIBERTY-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
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