508
FXUS65 KTFX 081944
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
144 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ACROSS THE HI-LINE.
- WARMER AND DRIER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
TAFS AND AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1217 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ACROSS THE HI-LINE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
BY WEDNESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. THIS EFFECT IS
BRIEFLY ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING MOVES THROUGH
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS TO REACH THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, PRIMARILY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT AND ACROSS THE HI-LINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT THEY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CONTINUE SOME OF THE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
WITH REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOW, PRIMARILY ABOVE 7000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS
ABOVE 4 INCHES IS LOW BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY A 60% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THOSE RECREATING IN THE BACKCOUNTRY WHERE
DIFFICULT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
-THOR
AVIATION
08/18Z TAF PERIOD
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING AROUND 21Z FOR KCTB AND 01Z FOR KHVR. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER KBZN FROM 22Z TO 01Z. NEAR
ANY SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHVR, WHICH COULD SEE MVFR VISBILITIES
THROUGH 01Z.
FOR KGTF: DUE TO THE VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS, A TEMPO GROUP WAS
ADDED WITH -SHRA TO REFLECT THE SPORADIC NATURE OF THE WINDS, AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINAL. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD, CLOUD
DECKS WILL REMAIN LOW, NEAR MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES, THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AROUND 00Z. DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
PERIODIC WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING THE CROSS-WIND THRESHOLD THROUGH
02Z, AT WHICH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT WILL CREATE A LESS THAN
10% CHANCE OF THE CROSS-WIND THRESHOLD BEING EXCEEDED. -DZOMBA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 44 76 54 81 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 44 69 50 72 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 42 76 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 39 77 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 30 70 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 37 78 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 43 75 49 81 / 40 0 0 0
LWT 41 73 50 82 / 20 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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