042
FNUS75 KTFX 091935
FWSTFX
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR GULCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
135 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
DRY, BREEZY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE INCIDENT
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY RANGE FOR WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 1400 AND 1800
LOCAL TIME, IS FROM 32 TO 39 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 MPH OR
GREATER ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE REALIZED BETWEEN 1200 AND 2000
LOCAL TIME. BY FRIDAY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
INCIDENT AREA, WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 1800 TO 2100 LOCAL TIME. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
BETWEEN 0300-1500 LOCAL TIME ON FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR
WETTING RAINFALL OVER THIS TIMEFRAME IS A 30% CHANCE, WITH A 50%
CHANCE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACH 0.05".
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 1400 AND 1800 LOCAL
TIME.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 TO
30 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........79 67 49 27 14 11 25 25 24 32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 59 64 68 72 77 79 80 81 80
RH..............45 41 38 33 27 23 21 19 19 19
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 10 15 15 15 15 15 15
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 20 25 25 25 25 25 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.5 3.5 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 7.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 15 20 25 25 30 30 30 25
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...11 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH
2000 LOCAL TIME.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........61 61 61 76 76 76 80 80 80 97 97 97
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............78 76 72 68 65 64 63 62 60 59 57 56
RH..............22 24 28 34 39 44 46 49 53 55 60 65
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.0 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.25 20 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........64 64 64 54 54 54 34 34 34 30 30 30
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............55 54 55 56 57 58 59 61 62 63 63 62
RH..............70 70 70 69 64 58 52 48 45 43 43 44
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.5 4.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW W W W W W W W NW NW N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........50 50 50 71 71 71 82 82 82 82 82 82
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............61 59 56 54 53 52 52 51 51 50 49 48
RH..............47 51 55 59 62 64 65 65 65 66 68 71
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
FORECASTER...MOLDAN
REQUESTED BY...KYLE MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621433.2/TFX
.DELDT 09/09/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KYLE.A.MILLER@USDA.GOV, TFX.OPS@NOAA.GOV
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