454
FXUS65 KTFX 101801
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1201 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND BREEZY TODAY.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME PERIODS OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO MONTANA, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 601 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
IN THE WAKE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
A WEAK RIDGE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF WARMER BUT BREEZY WEATHER TO NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA TODAY. THIS PERIOD OF WARMER WEATHER WILL COME TO A QUICK
END ON FRIDAY AS A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA INTO MONTANA, WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL LINGER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL SET UP THE NEXT,
STRONGER SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW
EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE SOME OF THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN PASSES.THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WINDS TODAY: WESTERLY, CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA TODAY. WHILE WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA
(58 MPH FOR MOST, 75 MPH ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT), GUSTS TO
35-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE LITTLE BELTS, WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE TREASURE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 7000 FEET ABOVE
SEA LEVEL, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO
AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UNDER 6 INCHES AT THE MOMENT, BUT SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
STILL HAVE AROUND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A
FOOT OVER THE WEEKEND. LUDWIG
AVIATION
10/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KBZN, KEKS, KWYS, AND KHLN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS AT THE KCTB AND KGTF TERMINALS. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT ALL BUT THE KBZN, KEKS, AND KWYS TERMINALS BEGINNING
AFTER 11/08Z. COMBINED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGTF, KCTB, KHVR, AND KLWT TERMINALS FROM
11/08Z THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA BEGINNING
AFTER 11/05Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN
NOW AND 11/08Z. -IG
FOR KGTF: GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
WITH CROSSWINDS EXCEEDING 15KTS FROM 19Z THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z, AT WHICH POINT WINDS (AND
THEREFORE CROSSWINDS) WILL DROP BELOW 10KTS. LUDWIG/IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 81 49 57 44 / 0 90 90 20
CTB 73 43 50 40 / 0 80 80 30
HLN 84 50 62 45 / 0 40 60 10
BZN 84 47 69 44 / 0 0 20 10
WYS 72 36 68 31 / 0 0 10 10
DLN 82 45 72 38 / 0 0 10 0
HVR 82 46 61 38 / 10 70 70 10
LWT 84 47 54 39 / 0 20 90 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page