882
FXUS65 KTFX 111732
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1132 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT,
OTHERWISE MUCH COOLER.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES START TO WARM BACK UP BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 358 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING, PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MT. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW ARRIVES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FORECAST
MODELS HAVE BEEN DECREASING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, AND ALSO PULLING THE PRECIP A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS DECREASING.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY, AS A ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE CWA BY NEXT FRIDAY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS SUN INTO MON AND
HOW LOW DO THE SNOW LEVELS GET. OVERALL THE FORECAST MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE THE MAX QPF OF ONLY AROUND AN INCH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OF QPF IN GLACIER PARK
IS ONLY 60 PERCENT, WITH LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MAINLY TO BE IN THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA, OF 3 TO 7 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL AS WELL, BUT COULD FALL DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FEET OR SO BY
MONDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT A WINTER STATEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE GLACIER PARK AREA FOR THIS EVENT.
OTHERWISE, JUST EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA FOR
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THAT BEING SAID, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT COMPARED TO SOUTHWEST MT, WHERE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHWEST MT WILL STILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S YET. BRUSDA
AVIATION
11/18Z TAF PERIOD
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA;
HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ISLAND RANGES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
1118/1218 TAF PERIOD. MVFR/LOW-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE LOWEST CIGS
OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HWY 12 CORRIDOR AND IMPACTING
THE KHLN, KGTF, KLWT, KHVR, AND KCTB TERMINALS. TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH 20Z AT THE KLWT TERMINAL.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. - MOLDAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 58 43 58 40 / 100 10 40 20
CTB 52 39 50 36 / 90 30 40 30
HLN 65 45 64 44 / 70 10 10 30
BZN 71 41 71 40 / 10 20 0 20
WYS 70 30 71 38 / 10 0 0 30
DLN 73 38 73 41 / 0 0 0 20
HVR 64 39 59 37 / 100 10 30 10
LWT 58 40 59 37 / 90 30 20 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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