747
FXUS65 KTFX 261015
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
415 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING.
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE CWA NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH THE CWA AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 40S AND 50S, WITH
SOME AREAS ALREADY IN THE 30S. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS
EXITED THE CWA, WITH JUST A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FALLING OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A
BIT COOLER TODAY, WITH MOST AREAS ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.
FOR SUNDAY, IT SHOULD START OUT DRY, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MT BY SUNDAY
EVENING, PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY FOR MON THRU FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A NICE
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
COULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE GFS/EC MODELS STILL DISAGREE A BIT, BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. OVERALL, THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD/AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, ANY COOL AIR THAT MOVES
INTO THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED, AS WARM AIR
SHOULD MOVE BACK IN RATHER QUICKLY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED A BIT EARLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF CUT BANK THIS MORNING.
FOR THE CUT BANK/BROWNING AREAS...THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL
CONTINUE, AS WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MPH IN THIS
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND IS NOT LOOKING EXCESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. BRUSDA
AVIATION
26/12Z TAF PERIOD.
STRONG WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT. EXPECT PASSING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. MOUNTAINS/PASSES COULD BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW FALLS IN THIS AREA. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 63 37 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 56 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 64 38 65 45 / 0 0 0 20
BZN 65 39 65 41 / 0 0 0 10
WYS 59 33 65 34 / 0 0 20 30
DLN 65 38 65 41 / 0 0 0 20
HVR 65 37 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 66 37 65 43 / 0 0 0 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EASTERN GLACIER,
WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS-SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
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