215
FXUS65 KTFX 270539
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1139 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING OVER THE PLAINS.
- TRENDING WARMER THIS WEEK.
- BREEZY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 539 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
ALTHOUGH LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP SHOWERY PRECIPITATION AT BAY. TROUGHING PRESENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE DIVING SE TOWARD CA BY
SUNDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL YIELD
AMPLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH A LOW-END
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM TROUGHING WILL YIELD ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
WEST YELLOWSTONE MONDAY.
A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AFTER MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHING CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A RESULT, WITH BREEZY
STRETCH DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOST, IF
NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS LOOKING DRY. -AM
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
CROSS BARRIER FLOW LOOKS TO PEAK SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. THE
PROBABILITY FOR A 55 MPH GUST AROUND CUT BANK IS IN THE VICINITY OF
25%.
A FEW DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL. HENCE, A DRY SCENARIO IS FAVORED NEXT WEEKEND, WITH AROUND
A 20% CHANCE FOR A TREND TOWARD A WETTER SCENARIO. -AM
AVIATION
27/06Z TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF
OBSCURATION ALONG THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 36 64 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 32 58 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 35 65 43 71 / 0 0 20 0
BZN 36 64 40 68 / 0 0 10 10
WYS 32 64 36 59 / 0 10 60 60
DLN 36 65 40 67 / 0 0 10 10
HVR 36 68 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 35 64 42 69 / 0 0 10 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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