342
FXUS65 KTFX 271718
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1118 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST MT.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 352 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER MONTANA TODAY. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MT
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST MT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.
WITH GENERALLY A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL MON THRU FRI ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT AS WELL FOR
TUE INTO WED, CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BOTH THE GFS/EC HAVE A OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. THUS THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR A PASSING SHOWER OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK WILL BE THE INCREASED WINDS ONCE AGAIN
FOR TUE/WED. RIGHT NOW THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ON TUE EVENING.
THUS NO HIGH WIND STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, THE INCREASED WIND GUSTS TUE, COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BRUSDA
AVIATION
27/18Z TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT MENTION IN ANY TAFS, HOWEVER. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KWYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERALL, WITH
SOME BRIEF MVFR NEAR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 63 46 72 45 / 0 10 0 0
CTB 58 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 64 42 71 41 / 10 20 0 0
BZN 64 38 67 37 / 0 10 0 0
WYS 65 37 59 28 / 10 40 60 10
DLN 64 40 67 36 / 10 10 0 0
HVR 67 41 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 63 42 69 41 / 10 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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