452
FXUS65 KTFX 272319
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
519 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- IT WILL BE WINDY ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA.
- MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IT WILL WARM UP TO AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 117 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL KEEP COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS EVENING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. ON MONDAY A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON MONDAY. IT WILL WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER NORTH OF I-90 ON MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) FLOW OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WITH DRY WEATHER. ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. ON WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH STRONG LOW-
LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH WINDY CONDITONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
ON MONDAY THERE IS A 20 - 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN GALLATIN AND MADISON COUNTIES. ON MONDAY THERE IS A 40 -
60% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER IN THE WEST
YELLOWSTONE AREA. ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT THERE IS A 40 - 70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR
GREATER. ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WEST OF I-15 THERE IS A A 20 -
50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH OR GREATER. AS A RESULT A HIGH
WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM 12 AM TUESDAY TO 12 AM WEDNESDAY. -IG
AVIATION
28/00Z TAF PERIOD.
AN ELONGATED PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND LOW VFR/MVFR FLIGHT DEGRADATIONS
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR ROUGHLY BETWEEN 28/08 AND 28/16Z,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE KWYS AREA. - RCG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 45 73 45 73 / 30 0 0 0
CTB 36 67 42 65 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 42 71 40 74 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 38 68 37 74 / 10 20 0 0
WYS 37 60 28 66 / 70 50 20 0
DLN 40 68 36 75 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 41 72 42 75 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 41 70 41 76 / 10 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR EAST GLACIER PARK REGION-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
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