651
FXUS65 KTFX 290959
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
359 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING FOG AROUND WEST YELLOWSTONE TODAY.
- WINDY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT TODAY, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE CWA.
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER FOR WED AND THU.
- ANY SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH MOST
AREAS LIKELY STAYING DRY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IN THE CUT BANK AREA. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING, BUT IT WILL REMAIN WINDY OVER MUCH OF
NORTH CENTRAL MT UNTIL THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
TODAY, BUT EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AS
COOLER AIR SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA FROM CANADA.
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG THE
DIVIDE, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD BE LIGHT.
OVERALL BOTH THE GFS/EC SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUS AFTER A FEW COOLER DAYS MID WEEK, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIGHT, WITH MOST
AREAS STAYING DRY.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
DENSE FOG AROUND WEST YELLOWSTONE THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO
THIN OUT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM.
WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING OF 65 TO 75 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND
EAST GLACIER PARK AND BROWNING, WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH BY CUT
BANK. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE AREAS,
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE OF LOWER HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. BRUSDA
AVIATION
29/12Z TAF PERIOD.
DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND WEST YELLOWSTONE TO ABOUT 14Z
TODAY. OTHERWISE, MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ABOUT 02Z WED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE
OBSCURED AT TIMES ACROSS THE CWA. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 72 55 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 67 44 57 36 / 10 0 20 0
HLN 73 47 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 73 41 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 64 27 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 73 40 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 75 46 64 36 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 75 48 65 38 / 0 10 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR EAST GLACIER PARK
REGION-EASTERN GLACIER, WESTERN TOOLE, AND CENTRAL PONDERA-
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
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