447
FXUS65 KTFX 291954
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
154 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS, THEN WINDS
SUBSIDE.
- COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN WARMING AGAIN UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER
THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW AS OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD, ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, SAVE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN EAST
OF A GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE LINE ON THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS RIDGE MAY QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WOULD BRING ANOTHER COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIND TONIGHT: WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE
SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE IS A LOW RISK (~10-20
PERCENT) OF THESE WAVES ATTEMPTING TO PROPAGATE A BIT ONTO THE
PLAINS, BUT THE OVERALL PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTIVE FOR THESE TO CAUSE IMPACTS FURTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS.
AS SUCH, I HAVE OPTED AGAINST A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LUDWIG
AVIATION
29/18Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR AT THE KWYS TERMINAL. AT THE KWYS TERMINAL THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF INTERMITTENT LOW CEILINGS FOR THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. AT THE KWYS TERMINAL BETWEEN 30/06Z AND
30/14Z THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG. AT THE KGTF, KCTB, AND KHVR
TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS. DURING THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA. -IG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 54 66 41 63 / 0 10 0 10
CTB 47 56 35 58 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 48 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 45 70 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 34 67 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 44 71 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 52 64 38 62 / 0 10 0 20
LWT 50 65 39 62 / 0 10 0 20
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page