405
FXUS65 KTFX 300538
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1138 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS, THEN WINDS SUBSIDE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN WARMING AGAIN UP
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED, WITH MOST AREAS ACTUALLY STAYING DRY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL (WESTERLY) FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER
THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW AS OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
KEEP A STEADY SUPPLY OF CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD, ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, SAVE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN EAST
OF A GREAT FALLS TO HAVRE LINE ON THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS RIDGE MAY QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WOULD BRING ANOTHER COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
WIND TONIGHT: WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE
SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THERE IS A LOW RISK (~10-20
PERCENT) OF THESE WAVES ATTEMPTING TO PROPAGATE A BIT ONTO THE
PLAINS, BUT THE OVERALL PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS GENERALLY NOT
SUPPORTIVE FOR THESE TO CAUSE IMPACTS FURTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS.
AS SUCH, I HAVE OPTED AGAINST A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LUDWIG
AVIATION
30/06Z TAF PERIOD
EXPECT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU,
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP FOG MINIMAL
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY WED THEN TO THE NORTHEAST ON WED EVENING. MOUNTAINS/PASSES
WILL BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 55 66 42 63 / 0 10 0 0
CTB 45 57 36 58 / 0 10 0 0
HLN 47 69 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 42 71 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 28 68 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 40 72 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 48 64 35 63 / 0 10 0 10
LWT 49 66 39 62 / 0 10 20 30
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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