131
FXUS65 KTFX 300949
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
349 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- GENERALLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING TO ADD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ABOUT CUT BANK EASTWARD ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR TO
HARLEM. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.03
INCHES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BRUSDA
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1202 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
SHOWERS WILL TRY TO FORM ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT THE EXPECTED MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE AROUND A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AT BEST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE 20S AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. NOTHING LOOKS
CRITICAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ELEVATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH FUTURE UPDATES. -THOR
AVIATION
30/12Z TAF PERIOD
EXPECT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU,
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
FALL THIS MORNING BETWEEN CUT BANK AND HAVRE. BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT A SURFACE WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THEN TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. MOUNTAINS/PASSES WILL BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THU. BRUSDA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 66 42 63 42 / 10 0 0 10
CTB 57 36 58 37 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 69 39 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 71 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 68 30 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 72 39 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 64 35 63 34 / 20 0 10 0
LWT 66 39 62 39 / 10 20 30 10
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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