910
FXUS65 KTFX 011711
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1111 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COOL DAY, BEFORE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM A
BIT.
- A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TODAY, MOSTLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT, BUT ANY RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN
YESTERDAY.
- MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO, WITH SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 359 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER MT THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER,
MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TODAY, THUS ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.
AFTER A COOL DAY TODAY, EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE/FALL
ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES DAILY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO WE WILL HAVE
A MIX OF WARM/COOL DAYS STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY, COMBINED WITH A BIT STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY, WITH SOME AREAS
APPROACHING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BECAUSE OF THE LOW
HUMIDITY, INCREASED WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM THIS FRIDAY
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE NEXT THU/FRI WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IS THE
MAIN IMPACT WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BRUSDA
AVIATION
01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
THE INITIAL CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE FOR WINDS INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS MID-MORNING
FRIDAY. -AM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 63 42 78 47 / 20 0 0 0
CTB 60 37 71 41 / 20 10 0 0
HLN 68 42 76 46 / 20 0 0 0
BZN 67 39 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 67 31 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 71 41 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 64 36 76 40 / 20 0 0 0
LWT 62 39 77 45 / 20 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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