147
FXUS65 KTFX 020523
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1123 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 513 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS THE THEME FOR THIS FORECAST.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S TOMORROW. A MILD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY COOL DOWN ON
SATURDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ON SUNDAY LASTING
INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING YET ANOTHER RISE IN TEMPERATURES. MONDAY IS
CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 80S. A MILD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF
MONTANA ON TUESDAY, CREATING NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RELATIVELY STABILIZE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEXT
WEEKEND, AS A MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE ALOFT MOVES IN.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE WEATHER DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MILD,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON MONDAY BEING THE BIGGEST IMPACT. -DZOMBA
AVIATION
02/06Z TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS START TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
BY MID-MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND UP TO 30KTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
START TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHTER WINDS RETURNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 44 78 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 39 71 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 43 76 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 40 76 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 33 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 42 78 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 39 76 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 41 77 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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