082
FXUS65 KTFX 021055
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
455 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMTH AND DRYNESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 207 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT WILL
SUPPORT WARMING AND DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS PRIMARILY MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER THINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS REACHING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. BREEZY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING ALSO DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKS
EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT. A SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIRMASS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SW US LATER THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH AND DRYNESS WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING 15-20F ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY. A FLATTER ZONAL FLOW REDEVELOPS MID-
LATE NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED DRYNESS AND MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE
POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES IN NEXT WEEKEND.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
THE WARMEST AND DRIEST CONDITIONS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE LIKELY
TO OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WHICH WOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WARMTH/DRYNESS COULD ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
SOME AREAS. HOENISCH
AVIATION
02/12Z TAF PERIOD.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE AT MOST
SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH AND TURN A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MT LATE TONIGHT.
HOENISCH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 78 46 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 71 40 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 76 43 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 76 41 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 68 33 70 31 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 77 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 77 41 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 77 45 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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