865
FXUS65 KTFX 030001
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
601 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- STRETCH OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY AT TIMES OVER THE PLAINS, PARTICULARLY THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1238 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026/
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
A WESTERLY TO EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK WAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH THIS
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING HAS A LOW CHANCE TO EEK OUT A SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE PLAINS AND VICINITY. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN.
A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVERALL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL, WHICH WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR SOME ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN A BIT DRIER
RECENTLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FINALLY MOVES IN VERY
LATE NEXT WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS IS A WEEK OUT, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN ANY SPECIFICS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MEMBERS WANT TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MEMBERS THAT DO PRODUCE SHOWERS
MAINTAIN DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S, EVEN AFTER MIXING OUT. SHOULD
DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED (LOW PROBABILITY) AFTER WINDS DEVELOP AT
THE SURFACE, I CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR FALLING DEW POINTS AS MIXING
OCCURS, WHICH WOULD PUT A SIGNIFICANT DAMPER ON ANY INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE ATTENTION TURNS TO MONDAY, WHERE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WHILE MOST
AREAS HAVE SEEN SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION RECENTLY TO STAVE OFF
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE AROUND IN LOCALLY DRIER AREAS. THE PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE GEFS-BASED HDWI IS AROUND 50% ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS EAST OF GREAT FALLS. THAT
SAID, FUELS DO NOT LOOK TO BE OVERLY RECEPTIVE AT THIS TIME. -AM
AVIATION
03/00Z TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS GIVING WAY TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -THOR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 46 68 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 39 64 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 44 70 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 42 71 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 32 70 30 73 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 42 72 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 41 68 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 45 67 40 77 / 10 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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