762
FXUS65 KTFX 190736
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
136 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
- METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:
TODAY THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
BRING WARM (WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSITIONS TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW (WEST-EAST) ALOFT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MONTANA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WILL COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DUE TO SOME MOISTURE MOVING OVER SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA COMBINED WITH
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. SEE THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS SECTION FOR DETAILS. IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA ON TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE REMAINS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW (WEST-EAST) OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, AND
CENTRAL MONTANA. DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
WEDNESDAY. ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS SECTION FOR
DETAILS. ON THURSDAY THERE REMAINS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA BY THURSDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. DUE TO THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING SNOW-LEVELS WILL
LOWER AND THE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS IN MOUNTAIN AREAS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE SNOW. ON FRIDAY THERE IS AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL BRING WINDY
CONDTIONS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES LINGERING. -IG
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE & SCENARIOS:
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA ALONG THE
IDAHO/MONTANA BORDER THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF RAIN OR
GREATER. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A 40 - 65% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45
MPH OR GREATER ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT, HI-LINE, JUDITH
BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES.
FOR TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THERE IS A 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR ONE HALF INCH OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR GREATER ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA. FOR TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS A 25 - 50% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. FOR TOTAL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THERE
IS A 50 - 80% CHANCE FOR ONE INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION OR
GREATER ACROSS THE MADISON AND GALLATIN RANGES AND THE LITTLE
BELTS. ACROSS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA THERE IS GREATER THAN A 60% CHANCE FOR 2
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS A 50 -
70% CHANCE FOR 4 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER ACROSS THE MADISON AND
GALLATIN RANGES. -IG
AVIATION
19/06Z TAF PERIOD
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TERMINAL KEKS
WITH OTHER TERMINALS REMAINING BELOW THAT. SKIES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLEAR, WITH PATCHY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. DENSER CLOUD COVER IS MOVING IN OVERHEAD
ACROSS KCTB AND EVENTUALLY KHVR, THAT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
-JR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 71 39 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 61 35 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 68 35 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 67 34 63 33 / 0 0 10 10
WYS 59 25 58 27 / 0 10 20 10
DLN 65 34 62 36 / 0 0 10 10
HVR 66 33 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 71 40 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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