276
FGUS64 KTUA 271416
ESGPUB
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
914 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID 05/27/2026 - 08/25/2026
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ARKANSAS RIVER
LEDC2 9.0 10.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
SALC2 8.0 9.0 10.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WSVC2 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PDLC2 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CNCC2 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PRTC2 9.0 10.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PDAC2 8.0 9.0 11.0 25 25 <5 <5 <5 <5
ADLC2 7.0 10.0 12.0 62 30 8 <5 <5 <5
NPTC2 16.5 17.5 18.5 44 <5 11 <5 7 <5
FWLC2 13.5 14.0 15.0 7 6 5 <5 <5 <5
ARCC2 10.0 11.0 12.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LXHC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 72 48 30 5 <5 <5
LMAC2 11.0 13.0 15.0 <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FOUNTAIN CREEK
FNEC2 11.5 16.0 18.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FHAC2 12.0 14.0 16.0 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PNNC2 12.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FCHC2 10.0 12.0 13.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:ST. CHARLES RIVER
SCVC2 12.0 15.0 18.0 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PURGATOIRE RIVER
PGMC2 7.0 9.0 11.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PGRC2 10.0 12.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
PTRC2 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LAPC2 9.0 12.0 15.0 19 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
.B TUA 0527 Z DH12 /DC202605271414/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID 05/27/2026 - 08/25/2026
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ARKANSAS RIVER
LEDC2 4.7/ 4.9/ 5.0/ 5.2/ 5.3/ 5.5/ 5.7
SALC2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 3.6/ 3.7/ 3.8
WSVC2 4.0/ 4.1/ 4.3/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 4.9/ 5.2
PDLC2 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.4/ 3.6/ 3.9/ 4.2
CNCC2 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.4/ 6.6/ 6.7/ 7.0/ 7.4
PRTC2 2.4/ 2.5/ 2.6/ 2.8/ 3.0/ 3.4/ 4.2
PDAC2 1.8/ 1.8/ 5.2/ 6.9/ 8.0/ 8.1/ 8.4
ADLC2 4.5/ 4.9/ 6.1/ 7.8/ 8.7/ 9.3/ 11.1
NPTC2 14.4/ 14.7/ 15.4/ 16.3/ 17.0/ 17.6/ 19.2
FWLC2 11.5/ 11.6/ 11.9/ 12.4/ 12.8/ 13.1/ 14.0
ARCC2 2.7/ 3.0/ 3.6/ 4.6/ 5.4/ 5.9/ 7.7
LXHC2 9.1/ 9.7/ 10.9/ 12.2/ 13.3/ 13.7/ 14.5
LMAC2 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.4/ 6.6/ 7.1/ 9.0/ 9.5
:FOUNTAIN CREEK
FNEC2 6.0/ 6.2/ 6.5/ 6.7/ 7.1/ 7.5/ 7.7
FHAC2 8.0/ 8.1/ 8.3/ 8.8/ 9.2/ 11.1/ 13.2
PNNC2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 5.7/ 8.3/ 9.6
FCHC2 2.2/ 2.3/ 2.6/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 5.3/ 7.3
:ST. CHARLES RIVER
SCVC2 3.6/ 3.7/ 4.0/ 5.1/ 7.1/ 9.5/ 13.6
:PURGATOIRE RIVER
PGMC2 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.3/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.7
PGRC2 4.8/ 4.8/ 5.5/ 6.7/ 7.4/ 7.8/ 8.1
PTRC2 1.7/ 1.9/ 2.2/ 2.8/ 3.5/ 4.2/ 4.6
LAPC2 3.9/ 4.0/ 5.0/ 6.4/ 8.3/ 10.1/ 10.9
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TWICE MONTHLY
:THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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