003
FGUS64 KTUA 081525
ESGICT
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
949 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID 10/08/2026 - 01/06/2027
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:ARKANSAS RIVER
GTBK1 12.0 18.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HCHK1 8.0 13.0 19.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HAVK1 10.0 11.0 12.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
DRBK1 12.0 15.0 16.2 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
MULK1 16.5 19.0 21.0 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
OXFK1 17.0 20.0 23.0 8 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
ARCK1 11.0 17.0 21.0 10 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
:WALNUT CREEK
ALBK1 24.0 25.0 25.7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COW CREEK
LYNK1 18.0 22.0 24.7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HTCK1 9.5 10.5 12.5 11 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER
ALMK1 22.0 25.0 27.0 7 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
HTDK1 25.0 27.0 29.0 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
SEDK1 22.0 25.0 26.0 6 <5 5 <5 5 <5
:COWSKIN CREEK
COWK1 18.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
MDKK1 8.0 10.0 12.0 9 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:NINNESCAH RIVER
PECK1 17.0 21.0 26.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
BLPK1 23.0 24.5 26.0 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:SLATE CREEK
WELK1 19.0 22.0 23.5 14 <5 11 <5 <5 <5
:WHITEWATER RIVER
TOWK1 22.0 25.0 28.0 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
AGSK1 21.0 25.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER
EDWK1 21.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:WALNUT RIVER
EDEK1 19.0 23.0 25.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
AGAK1 23.0 28.0 36.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
WFDK1 18.0 22.0 29.0 9 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
ARKK1 18.0 22.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHIKASKIA RIVER
CBNK1 10.0 19.0 28.0 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FALL RIVER
FRNK1 17.0 27.0 36.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:VERDIGRIS RIVER
ATOK1 19.0 21.0 26.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
IDPK1 30.0 47.6 53.0 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CFVK1 18.0 23.0 26.5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
FLRK1 22.0 27.0 32.0 14 <5 7 <5 <5 <5
CTWK1 9.0 11.0 18.0 20 <5 14 <5 <5 <5
PLYK1 32.0 34.0 37.0 15 <5 8 <5 <5 <5
:NEOSHO RIVER
IOLK1 15.0 21.0 27.0 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
CNUK1 23.0 28.5 35.0 18 <5 7 <5 <5 <5
EREK1 29.0 32.0 36.0 15 <5 9 <5 5 <5
PPFK1 21.0 23.0 32.0 19 <5 14 <5 <5 <5
OSWK1 17.0 20.0 25.0 20 <5 14 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
.B TUA 1008 Z DH12 /DC202610081449/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID 10/08/2026 - 01/06/2027
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ARKANSAS RIVER
GTBK1 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 3.2/ 6.8/ 8.8
HCHK1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.2/ 2.1/ 4.2/ 6.9
HAVK1 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 5.1/ 8.1/ 10.9
DRBK1 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.6/ 3.9/ 6.7/ 15.1
MULK1 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.0/ 6.6/ 8.9/ 11.3/ 19.9
OXFK1 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 8.5/ 11.3/ 14.3/ 21.4
ARCK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.7/ 7.4/ 11.2/ 18.5
:WALNUT CREEK
ALBK1 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 9.6/ 15.3/ 20.2
:COW CREEK
LYNK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 7.2/ 13.4/ 16.3
HTCK1 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 4.1/ 9.9/ 10.8
:LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER
ALMK1 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 11.1/ 17.7/ 27.0
HTDK1 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 14.0/ 20.2/ 27.4
SEDK1 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 9.2/ 14.1/ 26.8
:COWSKIN CREEK
COWK1 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.4/ 7.5/ 11.2/ 14.9/ 16.1
:SOUTH FORK NINNESCAH RIVER
MDKK1 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.8/ 5.6/ 7.9/ 10.5
:NINNESCAH RIVER
PECK1 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 6.7/ 12.2/ 20.1
BLPK1 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.7/ 13.1/ 18.2/ 25.5
:SLATE CREEK
WELK1 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 5.0/ 11.2/ 22.8/ 23.2
:WHITEWATER RIVER
TOWK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 3.2/ 9.0/ 20.0/ 24.2
AGSK1 4.1/ 4.1/ 4.1/ 5.4/ 8.2/ 13.7/ 18.8
:WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER
EDWK1 5.9/ 5.9/ 5.9/ 6.9/ 8.6/ 13.7/ 19.6
:WALNUT RIVER
EDEK1 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.9/ 4.8/ 9.6/ 12.3
AGAK1 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 6.7/ 9.9/ 17.3/ 22.6
WFDK1 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 3.0/ 7.8/ 16.7/ 23.8
ARKK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.6/ 8.8/ 13.4/ 17.3
:CHIKASKIA RIVER
CBNK1 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 8.0/ 13.5/ 16.2
:FALL RIVER
FRNK1 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.5/ 5.8/ 10.5/ 14.8/ 18.3
:VERDIGRIS RIVER
ATOK1 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 6.4/ 11.1/ 17.5/ 19.5
IDPK1 2.4/ 2.5/ 3.7/ 8.7/ 18.5/ 26.5/ 35.7
CFVK1 0.8/ 1.0/ 1.4/ 3.0/ 6.7/ 12.5/ 20.1
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
FLRK1 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.8/ 4.8/ 13.3/ 25.9/ 27.9
CTWK1 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 7.6/ 12.4/ 14.5
PLYK1 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.2/ 8.0/ 28.9/ 33.9/ 34.3
:NEOSHO RIVER
IOLK1 9.0/ 9.0/ 9.0/ 9.0/ 13.5/ 16.6/ 17.7
CNUK1 11.8/ 11.8/ 11.8/ 11.8/ 20.3/ 26.4/ 30.3
EREK1 14.6/ 14.6/ 14.6/ 14.8/ 24.0/ 31.6/ 36.0
PPFK1 10.4/ 10.4/ 10.4/ 11.5/ 19.3/ 24.4/ 26.1
OSWK1 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 9.3/ 15.0/ 22.1/ 23.6
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TWICE MONTHLY
:THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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