772
FGUS64 KTUA 081526
ESGTOP
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
949 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID 10/08/2026 - 01/06/2027
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPK1 20.0 24.0 32.0 24 <5 14 <5 <5 <5
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMCK1 26.0 27.0 40.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
EPRK1 19.0 19.5 30.5 8 <5 8 <5 <5 <5
NEOK1 22.0 23.0 44.0 23 <5 20 <5 <5 <5
BRLK1 27.0 40.0 45.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LRYK1 23.0 23.0 38.0 6 <5 6 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
.B TUA 1008 Z DH12 /DC202610081449/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID 10/08/2026 - 01/06/2027
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPK1 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 19.6/ 26.0/ 26.6
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMCK1 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 13.6/ 19.3/ 25.8
EPRK1 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 12.5/ 14.5/ 16.9/ 23.5
NEOK1 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.4/ 11.4/ 21.4/ 26.2/ 28.3
BRLK1 10.9/ 10.9/ 10.9/ 10.9/ 22.9/ 23.7/ 28.4
LRYK1 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 19.4/ 20.5/ 24.1
:LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TWICE MONTHLY
:THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
.END
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