607
FXUS65 KTWC 152042
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
142 PM MST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SAME AS STATED THIS MORNING, IT WILL BE A GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK THAT WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A SHALLOW AND QUICK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING DECREASING THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FROM THIS
MORNING BY A FEW DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
TOMORROW, DECEMBER 16 MONDAY, IN TUCSON WOULD BREAK THE RECORD
HIGH ON THAT DAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WINDS WILL INCREASE
EAST OF TUCSON FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG THIS WIND WILL BE. SOME
MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH WHILE OTHERS ARE
SUGGESTING 20 TO 28 MPH. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN ALL,
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS (8-12
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL) THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST THE SECOND HALF OF WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
BOTH SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY (70 TO 80% CHANCE) BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY (50 TO 60% CHANCE) BE BELOW
NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 17/00Z.
SKC FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASING CIRRUS AOA 20K
FEET AFTER 16/15Z. WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN UNDER 12 KTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 15 TO 20 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH, GENERALLY
IN EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. OTHERWISE,
WINDS MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE DEC 15 DEC 16 DEC 17
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 75 84/2016 80 79/1980 79 83/2013
AJO 70 81/2016 74 83/2016 75 81/1980
KITT PEAK 59 67/2010 63 70/1980 62 68/1980
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 74 84/2016 76 84/1980 78 83/2023
PICACHO PEAK 68 79/2016 71 79/1998 71 79/1988
SAFFORD AG STATION 71 75/1950 70 72/1950 70 73/1980
SIERRA VISTA FD 73 81/2016 71 75/2010 73 78/1980
TOMBSTONE 72 80/1950 71 83/1950 72 81/2016
WILLCOX 70 77/2010 69 79/2016 69 74/1939
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MALARKEY
AVIATION & FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
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