288
FXUS65 KTWC 160849
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
149 AM MST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW,
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL...WHICH PUSHES READINGS UP AGAINST POTENTIAL
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
I KNOW WHAT YOU ARE THINKING, WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL? TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70 TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SOUNDS WONDERFUL. GORGEOUS. WELL YES, THAT IS A GIVEN...BUT THIS
WARMTH IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE SETTING A NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE BY DEFINITION IS AN EVENT THAT HAS NEVER OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR A GIVEN SITE. FOR EXAMPLE, A
RECORD HIGH FOR A LOCATION THAT IS RELATIVELY NEW-ISH LIKE KOLS
MAY NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE SINCE THE PERIOD OF RECORD ONLY GOES
BACK TO 1999. HOWEVER, A SITE LIKE THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
(KTUS), THE PERIOD OF RECORD GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1895. A
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS SOMETHING THAT HASN'T HAPPENED IN NEARLY
130 YEARS. THAT IS A BIG DEAL.
SO WHAT'S GOING ON? WELL, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THIS
MORNING IS DEFINED BY A WEAK DRY TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE POISED TO FILL-IN BEHIND IT
TODAY. GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF MEMBERS BUILDING
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PROBABILITY OF
KTUS SETTING A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE THIS WEEK IS 24
PERCENT TODAY...JUMPING UP TO 49-53 PERCENT THIS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THIS IS THE BIG WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK. IT MAY BE GORGEOUS, BUT
IT IS SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 17/12Z.
SKC THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS(CIRRUS) AOA 20K FEET AFTER 16/19Z. WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH,
GENERALLY IN EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, WINDS MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE MON DEC 16 TUE DEC 17 WED DEC 18
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 78 79/1980 78 83/2013 81 80/2023
AJO 74 83/2016 76 81/1980 80 83/1980
KITT PEAK 62 70/1980 62 68/1980 65 70/2013
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 76 84/1980 78 83/2023 81 82/1979
PICACHO PEAK 70 79/1998 71 79/1988 77 76/1998
SAFFORD AG STATION 71 72/1950 71 73/1980 72 74/1980
SIERRA VISTA FD 72 75/2010 74 78/1980 71 79/2013
TOMBSTONE 71 83/1950 73 81/2016 70 84/1950
WILLCOX 69 79/2016 70 74/1939 68 75/1980
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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