688
FXUS65 KTWC 162018
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
117 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE MAIN STORY
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS GOING TO BE THE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HEIGHTS
BUILD DUE TO INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY PUSH AND ASSOCIATED TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS WILL BE
MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUCH AS THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY, PORTIONS OF THE
TUCSON METRO AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAP AREAS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH IN THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OF NOTE LOOKS TO COME IN RIGHT AROUND
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE SYSTEM
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH, THOUGH NOT UNANIMOUSLY. GIVEN IT'S 9 DAYS
OUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS CERTAINLY PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENT.
UNTIL THEN, WARM AND DRY WEATHER IT IS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS(CIRRUS) AOA 20K FEET THROUGH 17/06Z THEN BECOMING
MAINLY SKC. WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH, GENERALLY
IN EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES RESULTING IN
AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, WINDS MAINLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE DEC 16 DEC 17 DEC 18
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 78 79/1980 78 83/2013 80 80/2023
AJO 74 83/2016 75 81/1980 80 83/1980
KITT PEAK 62 70/1980 62 68/1980 65 70/2013
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 76 84/1980 78 83/2023 81 82/1979
PICACHO PEAK 70 79/1998 70 79/1988 77 76/1998
SAFFORD AG STATION 71 72/1950 70 73/1980 71 74/1980
SIERRA VISTA FD 72 75/2010 73 78/1980 71 79/2013
TOMBSTONE 71 83/1950 72 81/2016 70 84/1950
WILLCOX 69 79/2016 70 74/1939 68 75/1980
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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