223
FXUS65 KTWC 170834
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
134 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
I KNOW THAT THIS MAY BE A SURPRISE FOR THOSE
INQUIRING ABOUT THE STATE OF THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
OVER THE NEXT 7-DAYS, BUT HERE IS QUICK SUMMARY: DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. I
OCCASIONALLY RECALL EVENTS FROM MY CHILDHOOD GROWING UP IN THE OLD
PUEBLO. I WOULD GO TO THIS USED VINYL RECORD STORE WITH MY BEST
FRIEND AND GET AN ALBUM OR 45 RPM, WHICHEVER WE COULD AFFORD WITH
OUR ALLOWANCE. WE COULDN'T WAIT TO TAKE IT HOME, SETUP THE COUCH
PILLOWS IN THE LIVING ROOM LIKE A DRUM SET AND ROCK OUT. IT WAS SO
MUCH FUN, BUT THE PROBLEM WITH VINYL IS THAT THE RECORDS COULD
GET DAMAGED OR BROKEN FROM TIME TO TIME. THE NEEDLE WOULD SKIP AND
PLAY THE SAME GROOVE IN THE RECORD OVER AND OVER AGAIN WHEN THE
RECORD WAS SCRATCHED.
I BRING THIS UP BECAUSE IN A WAY, THIS IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK. CASE IN POINT, THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KTUS) ARE
LIKE THAT SKIPPING RECORD WITH A VALUE NEAR 80 DEGREES BEGINNING
THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TODAY WHERE
THE RECORD HIGH IS 83 DEGREES. IN ANY EVENT, WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME BROKEN RECORDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE DAILY PROBABILITY THAT
KTUS WILL BREAK A RECORD RANGES FROM 27-39 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DECENT CHANCES PERSISTING UNTIL TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS ALL THANKS TO A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEK. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO DRIVE A
SURFACE HIGH SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO NEW MEXICO AND
EVENTUALLY BACKING INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS A BACKDOOR FRONT.
THESE FEATURES ARE GENERALLY DRY, AS IS THE CASE THIS TIME AS
WELL, BUT WHAT IT WILL DO IS TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RESULTING IN BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BE
MOST NOTICEABLE IN THE AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUCH AS THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY, PORTIONS OF
THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN GAP AREAS. EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH.
THE NBM SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 24% CHANCE THAT MAXIMUM WIND
GUST AT KTUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 39+ MPH, WITH A 57% CHANCE IN
DOUGLAS (COCHISE COUNTY). ALTHOUGH THOSE WERE THE MAXIMUM VALUES
POSSIBLE IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SUB WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY, TAPERING OFF A
LITTLE THURSDAY.
IN ANY EVENT, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE NEAR-RECORD HEAT. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THOSE RECORDS (HIGH TEMPERATURES) MAY BE
BROKEN OR SCRATCHED.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/12Z.
SKC THIS MORNING BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS(CIRRUS) AOA 20K FEET BY
MIDDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN UNDER 12 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 10 TO 15 PERCENT
IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH 15 TO 25 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH,
GENERALLY IN EASTERN EXPOSED AREAS OF COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE,
WINDS MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS
DATE TUE DEC 17 WED DEC 18 THU DEC 19
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 78 83/2013 80 80/2023 81 81/1917
AJO 76 81/1980 80 83/1980 81 81/1950
KITT PEAK 62 68/1980 65 70/2013 65 68/2003
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 78 83/2023 82 82/1979 81 83/1955
PICACHO PEAK 70 79/1988 77 76/1998 76 76/2023
SAFFORD AG STATION 71 73/1980 71 74/1980 70 75/1969
SIERRA VISTA FD 73 78/1980 70 79/2013 72 79/1917
TOMBSTONE 73 81/2016 69 84/1950 71 81/1950
WILLCOX 70 74/1939 67 75/1980 68 72/2023
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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